Airbus recently came out with their predictions over what the air industry will be like in the next 20 years. They are projecting a 5% growth in the industry each and every year from now until ever (maybe not). This growth in my view is not going to happen due to a few issues. These issues are climate change, end of cheap oil, airbus being optimistic (because they want people to by their planes).
Yes Climate Change is happening, I use the term climate change because global warming does not make sense as a term. The world is not just getting on average warmer, there are also changes in the weather and seasons. This means the impacts go beyond just warming up. It also should be noted that Europe will get colder due to climate change. The world climate is changing not necessarily just warming up.
So how climate change will affect the air industry is through peoples knowledge about how bad it is to fly. I know that flying is a great way to visit people and travel to places you have never been, I do it too. I think that the culture will change that we do not have the right to fly but the luxury to travel around the world when ever we would like. I can also see countries putting restrictions on travel, I have mention the European ones. If people, including myself, start to change the way they live because of new respect of the environment then all of these predictions will be thrown out the window. It is true that the planes that they are making are more efficient than the average car. But cars to not travel across oceans.
The good old end of cheap oil, if you have not heard of this term it will become more important as time goes on. This idea is that oil is in a finite amount and that we are using it to fast so supply will go down and prices will go through the roof. This would have a huge impact on the airline and most other industries. How could the airline industries continue to fly around the world in the price of oil is very high. They can pass it on to the customer, but they will already be paying higher prices for heating, food and most other products. There are questions about when the end of cheap oil will occur. Will it happen in the next few years, has it already happen?? I thought the end of cheap oil had occurred when the price of oil when over 100 dollars but then it went right back down (well not all the way). There also are not alternatives that are viable, ethonal is a joke. The produce of the alternatives usually take about the same amount of energy going into it as you get out of it.
When the price of oil goes up only certain people while be able to fly, maybe the person who bought an A380 for personal use. Don't worry he also has a 747 as a backup. I feel that the airbus report is view the world through the eyes that it will stay the same, not that oil will go up.
The airbus report is optimistic, I think this is because they are the ones who are making the planes. I would doubt that they would say that the airline industry is going to die next year and we are not going to make any money and go bankrupt (this is not going to happen, an example).
There is also the issue of urban area extending their airport facilities, Queenstown NZ is expanding their airport. This is to bring it up to international standards, that is for large planes. They can already take smaller planes at that location but they want to expand it, it will take two years to move all of the supplies that they need for it. For background Queenstown is a tourist town that needs many tourists to survive, also one of the tourist traps in NZ. They should be looking at alternatives if the price of flying is to increase.
They could put the AGV in place, it would only take 1 hour from Dunedin, and take 2 hours from Christchurch. I am sure this is not going to happen but it would be good to increase the rail service in NZ.
I hope that Airbus is wrong because then our western lifestyles would have changed and the rest of the world would have not gone down our path. Our lifestyle is one of selfcenteredness, wanting everything we can get at the expense of other. The good old 'tragedy of the commons'.
Yes Climate Change is happening, I use the term climate change because global warming does not make sense as a term. The world is not just getting on average warmer, there are also changes in the weather and seasons. This means the impacts go beyond just warming up. It also should be noted that Europe will get colder due to climate change. The world climate is changing not necessarily just warming up.
So how climate change will affect the air industry is through peoples knowledge about how bad it is to fly. I know that flying is a great way to visit people and travel to places you have never been, I do it too. I think that the culture will change that we do not have the right to fly but the luxury to travel around the world when ever we would like. I can also see countries putting restrictions on travel, I have mention the European ones. If people, including myself, start to change the way they live because of new respect of the environment then all of these predictions will be thrown out the window. It is true that the planes that they are making are more efficient than the average car. But cars to not travel across oceans.
The good old end of cheap oil, if you have not heard of this term it will become more important as time goes on. This idea is that oil is in a finite amount and that we are using it to fast so supply will go down and prices will go through the roof. This would have a huge impact on the airline and most other industries. How could the airline industries continue to fly around the world in the price of oil is very high. They can pass it on to the customer, but they will already be paying higher prices for heating, food and most other products. There are questions about when the end of cheap oil will occur. Will it happen in the next few years, has it already happen?? I thought the end of cheap oil had occurred when the price of oil when over 100 dollars but then it went right back down (well not all the way). There also are not alternatives that are viable, ethonal is a joke. The produce of the alternatives usually take about the same amount of energy going into it as you get out of it.
When the price of oil goes up only certain people while be able to fly, maybe the person who bought an A380 for personal use. Don't worry he also has a 747 as a backup. I feel that the airbus report is view the world through the eyes that it will stay the same, not that oil will go up.
The airbus report is optimistic, I think this is because they are the ones who are making the planes. I would doubt that they would say that the airline industry is going to die next year and we are not going to make any money and go bankrupt (this is not going to happen, an example).
There is also the issue of urban area extending their airport facilities, Queenstown NZ is expanding their airport. This is to bring it up to international standards, that is for large planes. They can already take smaller planes at that location but they want to expand it, it will take two years to move all of the supplies that they need for it. For background Queenstown is a tourist town that needs many tourists to survive, also one of the tourist traps in NZ. They should be looking at alternatives if the price of flying is to increase.
They could put the AGV in place, it would only take 1 hour from Dunedin, and take 2 hours from Christchurch. I am sure this is not going to happen but it would be good to increase the rail service in NZ.
I hope that Airbus is wrong because then our western lifestyles would have changed and the rest of the world would have not gone down our path. Our lifestyle is one of selfcenteredness, wanting everything we can get at the expense of other. The good old 'tragedy of the commons'.
No comments:
Post a Comment